Monday, 8 October 2012
Unit 4: Globalisation - Tesco in India
Unit 2 & 4: UK Macroeconomic data
Click here to access a great piece (with questions) on the reasons behind the UK and the double dip recession. Try and answer the questions yourself.
Saturday, 6 October 2012
Unit 4: Economic Development - S Sudan
The worlds newest country is desperate to develop. However, there are huge issues that are stopping this from happening. Here is a short new report on the challenges facing post-conflict South Sudan. South Sudan has one of the lowest literacy rates in the world, as only about a quarter of its people can read and write. Decades of civil war meant few people had the chance to go to school. The main university has just reopened but the contrasts with the gleaming lecture halls of the developed world are as stark as they can be.
Questions for discussion:
How can South Sudan improve literacy rates amongst its population?
Is it as simple as throwing money at the problem or is there a cultural issue as well?
Questions for discussion:
How can South Sudan improve literacy rates amongst its population?
Is it as simple as throwing money at the problem or is there a cultural issue as well?
Unit 4: Economic Development - Vietnam
High inflation threatens Vietnamese growth
Vietnam has been coined Little China by some who have lauded their fast growth and development in recent years. But high inflation and property bubbles and a growing problem of non-performing loans and fragile banks threatens to derail progress. This short news report looks at the economic situation in Vietnam and includes pictures of a huge infrastructure project linking Vietnam and China - financed by the Japanese
Questions for discussion:
Is inflation inevitable when you grow at such a quick pace?
Vietnam has been coined Little China by some who have lauded their fast growth and development in recent years. But high inflation and property bubbles and a growing problem of non-performing loans and fragile banks threatens to derail progress. This short news report looks at the economic situation in Vietnam and includes pictures of a huge infrastructure project linking Vietnam and China - financed by the Japanese
Questions for discussion:
Is inflation inevitable when you grow at such a quick pace?
Tuesday, 2 October 2012
Unit 4: Current Account deficit - Revision Notes
A current account deficit measures the balance of trade in:
The financial account comprises of 2 main features:
a) Short Term Capital flows e.g. hot money flows and purchase of securities
b) Long Term Capital flows e.g. investment in building new factories
- goods
- services
- net investment incomes and transfers
A deficit on the current account means a country is importing more than we are exporting. This will have to be matched by a surplus on the financial and / or capital account.
b) Long Term Capital flows e.g. investment in building new factories
Some economists argue we need not worry about a current account deficit. This is because:
If a current account deficit is financed from long term capital inflows then this can be beneficial for the economy. Inward investment can increase the productive capacity of the economy.
In an era of globalisation it is much easier to attract sufficient capital flows to finance the deficit.
If the deficit gets too large it will cause a devaluation which helps to reduce the deficit. Also when there is a slowdown in consumer spending the deficit will fall.
A current account deficit provides an outlet for domestic demand and prevents inflation.
Reasons to Worry about a Current Account Deficit.
1. There could be problems financing the deficit in the long term. A short term deficit is not a problem, but if you have a deficit of over 6% of GDP then it is a problem if you rely on Capital flows. A significant part of the current account deficit in US is finance by Chinese investors buying US securities, at relatively low interest rates.
2. Most countries would not be able to borrow such large amounts at low interest rates. The US currently can because the US is seen as the World’s reserve currency. However if attitudes to the US economy change and investors lose their confidence in the US economy, they will stop buying US debt. This will cause 2 problems.
US interest rates will need to rise to attract enough people to buy the debt. These higher interest rates will reduce demand in the economy. Higher interest rates will particularly hurt American consumers who have large amounts of debt at the moment.
If capital flows can’t be attracted then the dollar will continue to devalue further. This could cause inflationary pressures, interest rates may need to rise to stabilise the dollar.
Basically to correct the deficit would be a painful experience for the US economy and result in a slowdown or possibly recession
3. In the US the current account deficit is to a large extent caused by excess spending in the economy. It is partly caused by government borrowing which increases Aggregate Demand in the economy and hence growing demand for imports. A large current account deficit is often a sign of an unbalanced economy. It could be a sign of structural weakness and an uncompetitive manufacturing sector. This is particularly a problem in the Eurozone where the exchange rates are permanently fixed.
4. A deficit on the current account increases foreign liabilities. In the beginning a current account deficit could be just a deficit on buying goods. However over time the deficit will be increased by the interest payments on the capital surplus. Foreigners invest in the US. On these investments they receive interest payments or dividends. These dividends count as a debit on the current account. Therefore the longer the deficit goes on the higher the level of investment income debits will be accrued. This means that in the future the economy will need to attract capital flows just to pay off the investment income. As well as the deficit on goods and services.
US current account deficit reached 6% of GDP in 2006. This reflected strong domestic demand and a decline in competitiveness. The credit crunch caused a reduction in US current account deficit.
Example of Iceland's Current Account Deficit
Iceland is an example of a country with a large current deficit which later imploded.
In the years leading up to 2008, there was a sharp inflow of capital to Icelandic banks. This enabled Iceland to run a record current account deficit. Iceland was spending more than they were earning. When capital flows dried up, banks lost money and there was a rapid deterioration in the current account.
Current Account Deficits in the Eurozone
In the Eurozone, current account deficits are a bigger cause for concern because countries have a permanently fixed exchange rate (common currency). Therefore they can't devalue to restore competitiveness. Therefore countries may have to pursue internal devaluation (deflation) to restore competitiveness.
Conclusion
It depends on the size of the current account as a % of GDP. Clearly in Iceland's case, over 20% of GDP was unsustainable. But, in US case 6% of GDP later shrank to a more manageable 3% of GDP.
A current account deficit is often a signal of another underlying problem. For example, a banking boom (in Iceland's case). A boom in domestic demand or a lack of competitiveness in Eurozone.
If a current account deficit is financed from long term capital inflows then this can be beneficial for the economy. Inward investment can increase the productive capacity of the economy.
In an era of globalisation it is much easier to attract sufficient capital flows to finance the deficit.
If the deficit gets too large it will cause a devaluation which helps to reduce the deficit. Also when there is a slowdown in consumer spending the deficit will fall.
A current account deficit provides an outlet for domestic demand and prevents inflation.
Reasons to Worry about a Current Account Deficit.
1. There could be problems financing the deficit in the long term. A short term deficit is not a problem, but if you have a deficit of over 6% of GDP then it is a problem if you rely on Capital flows. A significant part of the current account deficit in US is finance by Chinese investors buying US securities, at relatively low interest rates.
2. Most countries would not be able to borrow such large amounts at low interest rates. The US currently can because the US is seen as the World’s reserve currency. However if attitudes to the US economy change and investors lose their confidence in the US economy, they will stop buying US debt. This will cause 2 problems.
US interest rates will need to rise to attract enough people to buy the debt. These higher interest rates will reduce demand in the economy. Higher interest rates will particularly hurt American consumers who have large amounts of debt at the moment.
If capital flows can’t be attracted then the dollar will continue to devalue further. This could cause inflationary pressures, interest rates may need to rise to stabilise the dollar.
Basically to correct the deficit would be a painful experience for the US economy and result in a slowdown or possibly recession
3. In the US the current account deficit is to a large extent caused by excess spending in the economy. It is partly caused by government borrowing which increases Aggregate Demand in the economy and hence growing demand for imports. A large current account deficit is often a sign of an unbalanced economy. It could be a sign of structural weakness and an uncompetitive manufacturing sector. This is particularly a problem in the Eurozone where the exchange rates are permanently fixed.
4. A deficit on the current account increases foreign liabilities. In the beginning a current account deficit could be just a deficit on buying goods. However over time the deficit will be increased by the interest payments on the capital surplus. Foreigners invest in the US. On these investments they receive interest payments or dividends. These dividends count as a debit on the current account. Therefore the longer the deficit goes on the higher the level of investment income debits will be accrued. This means that in the future the economy will need to attract capital flows just to pay off the investment income. As well as the deficit on goods and services.
Example of Iceland's Current Account Deficit
In the years leading up to 2008, there was a sharp inflow of capital to Icelandic banks. This enabled Iceland to run a record current account deficit. Iceland was spending more than they were earning. When capital flows dried up, banks lost money and there was a rapid deterioration in the current account.
Current Account Deficits in the Eurozone
Conclusion
It depends on the size of the current account as a % of GDP. Clearly in Iceland's case, over 20% of GDP was unsustainable. But, in US case 6% of GDP later shrank to a more manageable 3% of GDP.
A current account deficit is often a signal of another underlying problem. For example, a banking boom (in Iceland's case). A boom in domestic demand or a lack of competitiveness in Eurozone.
Monday, 1 October 2012
Unit 3: Prisoners Dilemma (Game Theory)
The second form of game theory that you guys need to understand...The Prisoners Dilemma.
Questions for discussion:
How does this suggest firms should compete?
What are the benefits/drawbacks for students?
Questions for discussion:
How does this suggest firms should compete?
What are the benefits/drawbacks for students?
Unit 3: Monopoly & Microsoft
Recent reports have suggested that some software companies are unhappy with the innovations they have brought with the latest incarnation of their Windows operating system. Designed primarily for tablets and sporting a more 'application market ' style user interface this is meant to be the big comeback of the flying window. The makers of of block-building Minecraft and similar games writers Activation Blizzard and Valve have expressed a familiar rage against the MS machine.
It seems that Microsoft are trying a few new domination tricks. The software firms object to the 30% cut Microsoft are taking when selling apps using their on-screen Market suggesting this could put some firms out of business. Even worse, in order to sell through Windows 8, each firm has to have its software certified by Windows, potentially restricting creativity and competition.
The creators of Minecraft are threatening to refuse to sell their product on Windows 8 - a brave but risky strategy that most firms would find hard to copy given the domination that Microsoft has.
Questions for discussion:
How are microsoft competing?
Is there any eviodence of restrictive practices?
Will the consumer benefit in the long run?
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