I don't think anybody has any idea what the economic impact of Brexit will be. Steve Eisman
Total Pageviews
Showing posts with label european union. Show all posts
Showing posts with label european union. Show all posts
Monday, 16 April 2018
Thursday, 25 May 2017
Theme 4: Micro and macro impact of a trade bloc - The EU
Here is a video recording of an A-level economics revision webinar on aspects of European Monetary Union.
- Monetary union is a deeper form of integration
- The single European currency, the euro, was introduced in 1999 and came into common circulation in January 2002
- No country has yet left the Euro Area
- As of May 2017, there are nineteen member nations
- Of the 28 EU countries (the UK leaves in 2019), 9 are not part of the single currency including Denmark, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland
Key problems facing the Euro Area economy
- High structural unemployment + hysteresis effects
- High levels of government debt + high bond yields for some
- Risks from price deflation
- Persistently low aggregate demand / spare capacity
- Fragile banking sector (non-performing loans)
- Weak capital investment – some diverting to emerging Asia
- Big trade / current account imbalances
- Political tensions and ongoing refugee crisis
- Declines in subjective wellbeing + rise in poverty
Where next for the Euro Area?
- Politics takes centre stage in 2017 (Austria, Holland, France and Germany all have key elections)
- Euro Area is showing stronger (cyclical) growth and falling unemployment with a reduced risk of deflation
- Is this enough for countries to climb out of the debt crisis?
- Banking systems remain fragile (especially in Italy)
- Eurozone’s periphery is still in deep crisis
- Need for structural economic reforms remains
- Changing centre of global economic gravity is accelerating
- Big risk is that hysteresis effects of collapse in investment, structural unemployment and impact of rising inequalities and socio-economic insecurity will damage Europe’s trend growth and the potential to raise living standards.
Sunday, 22 January 2017
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)